The Battle for Aleppo - ISW Report

Elizabeth O'Bagy | Institute for the Study of War |The Syrian regime has launched an offensive in the northern province of Aleppo. This operation follows shortly after the regime victory at al-Qusayr in Homs province, where Hezbollah forces and National Defense Forces played key roles. Along with key regime units, these forces have redeployed to Aleppo in support of this operation, indicating its strategic significance to Assad. A regime victory at Minnakh Airbase, north of Aleppo city, would secure regime resupply to forces clearing the countryside north of Aleppo city, threatening the opposition presence in the province and isolating opposition strongholds in Idlib and al Raqqa.

On the heels of its success in al-Qusayr, the Syrian government launched a new offensive against rebel-held areas in Aleppo province, marked by the deployment of thousands of Lebanese Hezbollah militants on June 2.[1] Focusing on strategic targets in northern Aleppo province, government forces have reinforced their defenses at Minnakh Airbase, and started to deploy on a large scale in the surrounding countryside. The swift advance toward Aleppo comes in lieu of regime force consolidation in positions surrounding al-Qusayr in Homs province, suggesting that the Syrian government believes its potential for success against a reeling rebel force in the contested environs of Aleppo city outweighs the dangers of losing some of the ground recently gained in al-Qusayr.

 

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad likely perceives the current momentum shift in his favor as an opportunity to deal a lethal blow to the opposition. Furthermore, he likely seeks to defeat the armed opposition militarily before they can be armed by Western powers. Given that rebel positions in Aleppo province are not operationally oriented to counter a regime ground campaign, and that the Syrian Military has been revitalized by Hezbollah’s overt involvement in the conflict, it is not beyond reason for the Syrian government to think that a primary offensive could lead to results similar to those seen in al-Qusayr. However, despite its impressive military gains in recent weeks, the Syrian government does not have the forces required to simultaneously retake all rebel-held areas of the country, and there are limits to the amount of reinforcements that Hezbollah can provide. This suggests not only that the regime will struggle to achieve a level of success in Aleppo, but also that it will risk losing territory gained in recent offensives. The regime faces the risk that its campaign may culminate before it reaches its operational and strategic objectives.

 

 

The Syrian government is employing a familiar strategy in the potential battle for northern Aleppo, called Operation Northern Storm.[2] This strategy proved successful in the battles for Wadi al-Deif and Maarat al-Numan leading up to its victory in al-Qusayr. At the Wadi al-Deif Airbase, next to the city of Maarat al-Numan in Idlib province, regime military forces broke a significant rebel siege and were able to re-establish an important strategic presence before attempting to retake the rebel-controlled town of Maarat al-Numan.[3] Once in control of Maarat al-Numan, government forces were then able to re-open critical ground supply lines which allowed for the redirection of airpower and an expansion of its air campaign over Homs province prior to its advance on al-Qusayr. A similar operation is now underway at Minnakh Airbase, where government reinforcements have been flown to help break through the rebel siege, and clearance operations are occurring in the villages located along the highway leading into Minnakh. If the regime is able to break the siege at Minnakh, it will be able to push south to consolidate its control of the highway leading into Aleppo city, thereby cutting off an important supply line for the opposition. This will set the stage for a potential siege of Aleppo city as government troops are able to advance on the city from both the south and the north.

 

Another regime practice that it has executed elsewhere centers on preparatory operations to clear the towns and villages surrounding a principal objective. In al-Qusayr, government troops led by Hezbollah guerilla forces first cleared adjacent towns, such as Shamsin and Shinsar. Once in control of these towns, the government proceeded to conduct preparatory bombardment of al-Qusayr before sending in Hezbollah irregular forces, followed by Syrian government infantry troops. This strategy included driving rebel forces inward to compress their ranks and then isolating them to prevent rebel reinforcement or resupply. The combination of these attacks proved insurmountable, and the rebels were forced to retreat out of al-Qusayr. The early stages of the government’s offensive in Aleppo share these same characteristics, as government forces are focusing on control of the airbases and supply lines while simultaneously clearing surrounding towns, particularly Nebul and Zahra.[4]  Both towns are predominantly Shi‘i and have been heavily contested between opposition and government forces, much like the villages to the southwest of al-Qusayr. Neither side has demonstrated a clear advantage as of yet, making the results of these specific clashes highly pertinent to the upcoming offensive against Aleppo city. 

 

The towns of Nebul and Zahra are significant for three reasons. First, if the towns were to come under complete government control, they could serve as important staging grounds for attacks against Aleppo city. The regime could consolidate its positions around Aleppo before launching an intensive ground campaign. This was a successful approach in the siege of al-Qusayr, as the regime cleared and gained control of towns neighboring al-Qusayr leading up to the siege, providing them a base of support from which to launch attacks. Second, the towns are strategically located along the highway between Aleppo and Minnakh Airbase that leads to Turkey. This highway has been used as an important resupply route for rebels fighting in Aleppo city. If government forces took control of the surrounding towns, they would be able to isolate and besiege rebel forces operating in Aleppo city. Again, similar tactics were used by the government in the battles for al-Qusayr and Wadi al-Deif, with rebels losing key highway checkpoints in the days leading up to their retreat. Third, government control of the towns would help solidify its control of Minnakh Airbase, from which the Syrian Air Force can launch air raids against rebel positions both within Aleppo city and in the surrounding countryside.

Nebul and Zahra have been defended for the last few months by Popular Defense Committees, militia units composed of minorities who have armed themselves to protect their communities against opposition fighters. These committees are directly supported by the government and Iran.[5] Though these predominantly Shi‘a Popular Defense Committees operating in the area had initially agreed to a truce with rebel forces, the ceasefire failed on April 3rd and clashes have occurred regularly since that time.[6] Despite additional ceasefires attempts, the regime has largely been able to disrupt attempts at mediation between the two communities. To this end, the Popular Defense Committees have served as an important irregular force on behalf the Syrian government, and thus far they have largely cooperated with the regime on its recent offensive.   

 

In addition to the local Popular Defense Committees, thousands of Alawites belonging to pro-government paramilitary troops are being sent to Aleppo. These Alawi fighters function similarly to the Popular Defense Committees, forming militia-like units within the government’s newly created National Defense Force (NDF). The Syrian government is also relying extensively on support from Hezbollah forces for operations in Aleppo. According to rebels from Aleppo’s Tawhid Brigade, Hezbollah fighters are amassing around the two strategic towns of Anadan and Harithan that could be used to launch the government’s campaign to retake much of the rebel-held areas in Aleppo.[7]  One Hezbollah commander acknowledged that there were at least 2,000 Hezbollah fighters in Aleppo province in preparation for an attack on Aleppo city, which he claimed has already begun on small scale.[8] While the combined effects of these reinforcements have sustained the government’s campaign so far, there are growing signs of strain, particularly for the Hezbollah units involved which have already suffered more casualties than expected and have been forced to change their rotation patterns. Hezbollah also faces growing domestic pressure over their role in Syria.[9] Whether they will be able to sustain such a high-level of involvement in Syria is debatable in light of their political position and resource limitations. Thus, it could be argued that the government has pushed on the offensive in Aleppo rather than consolidating in Homs because they recognize that there is a certain time limit to the all-out support it is receiving from Hezbollah.  

 

Another prominent factor in the unfolding situation has been the role of local Kurdish groups around Aleppo. Relations have been tense between rebel groups and local Kurdish groups that maintain control of Sheikh Maqsoud, a neighborhood in northern Aleppo. Additionally, there has been a notable increase in the amount of violence between the Kurdish Popular Protection Units (YPG) and rebel forces northwest of Aleppo, in the Ifreen area. Reports from Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) show significant YPG-Rebel clashes beginning on June 6th, the day after al-Qusayr fell under government control. Clashes have continued throughout the Ifreen area, as YPG forces have taken numerous villages along the main ground line of communication leading from Aleppo city into Turkey, and have also seized a number of connecting roads.[10] The YPG appears to be defending and consolidating its territory. At the same time, YPG clashes with regime forces have been noticeably absent. In fact, regime and YPG agendas appear to be aligning with Kurdish elements reportedly cooperating with regime forces to protect their territory and evict the rebels from the area.[11]  YPG forces have been largely successful in seizing temporarily rebel-held territory, and they serve as another obstacle to opposition control along the Turkey-Aleppo line of communication. Overall, tense relations between the Arab and Kurdish armed groups have proven a considerable weakness for the opposition, and one that the regime will look to exploit further as it advances on Aleppo city.

 

The recent surge in activity in strategic locations around Aleppo has shown the regime’s willingness to shift its attention away from its recent victory in al-Qusayr, and instead to focus on a battle for northern Aleppo. The rebels’ main supply line from Turkey flows into Aleppo, and then extends throughout the rest of northern and central Syria. The loss of the Turkey-Aleppo supply line would likely cripple rebel ability to contest areas throughout the Aleppo and Idlib provinces and further south into central Syria. It would also serve to further fragment the opposition movement, as rebel groups would no longer control a geographically linked territory from the east to the west, across Raqqa, Aleppo, and Idlib provinces. With rebel groups bogged down in Aleppo city and others isolated in positions to the west in Idlib province and to the east in pocketed strongholds in Raqqa and Deir Ez-Zour provinces, it is highly doubtful that opposition forces would be able to mount any offensive capabilities against the government. While fighting would continue, rebels would likely be forced to revert back to guerrilla tactics rather than attempting to hold territory.

 

Although the recent gains made by the Syrian government are likely to diminish overtime, at the present time, momentum is clearly in the government’s favor. As the Syrian opposition faces new incursions by pro-government forces, including Hezbollah and other Iranian-sponsored militants, discussions to aid the opposition have taken on added urgency. Given the backing of Assad’s allies, it is unlikely that the opposition will be able to defend Aleppo without external support. On June 12, Free Syrian Army leader General Salim Idriss requested lethal support to the opposition in a pressing letter to the White House, stating that they “cannot hold on to Aleppo without these weapons.”[12]  As the Obama Administration has declared that the Assad regime has crossed a "red line" in the usage of chemical weapons in Syria, a decision has been taken to begin supplying opposition groups with lethal aid in the form of small arms and ammunition, as well as possibly anti-tank weaponry.[13] A decision to supply rebels with anti-aircraft weapons has so far been declined. Whether this provision of aid will be sufficient to slow or reverse regime advances remains to be seen.

 

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[1] Loveday Morris, “In Syria, Hezbollah forces appear ready to attack rebels in city of Aleppo,” Washington Post, June 2, 2013.

[2] Alexander Besant, “Operation Northern Storm: Syrian army plans assault on Aleppo,” Global Post, June 10, 2013.

[3] Jonathan Dupree, “ Syria Update: Regime Breaks Siege at Wadi al-Deif,” Backgrounder, Institute for the Study of War, April 18, 2013.

[4] “Rebel fighters bombarded with rockets the Nubul and al-Zahra' towns,” SOHR, June 12, 2013

[5] Joseph Holliday, “The Assad Regime: from Counterinsurgency to Civil War,” Institute for the Study of War, March 2013.

[6]Syrian Observatory for Human Rights Facebook Page, April 3, 2013,  https://www.facebook.com/syriaohr.

[7] Julian Barnes and Adam Entous, “Rebels plead for weapons in face of Syrian onslaught,” Wall Street Journal, June 12, 2013.

[8] Morris, “In Syria, Hezbollah forces appear ready to attack rebels in city of Aleppo.”

[9] Morris, “For Lebanon’s Sunnis, growing rage at Hezbollah over role in Syria,” Washington Post, June 12, 2013.

[10]  Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, June 6-12, 2013.

[11]  Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, June 6, 2013.

[12] Julian Barnes and Adam Entous, “Rebels plead for weapons in face of Syrian onslaught,” Wall Street Journal, June 12, 2013.

[13] Mark Mazzetti, Michael R. Gordon, and Mark Landler, “U.S. is Said to Plan to Send Weapons to Syrian Rebels,” New York Times, June 13, 2013,  http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/14/world/middleeast/syria-chemical-weapons.html?.

Syria Update 13-09: The Fall of al-Qusayr

Elizabeth O'Bagy | Institute for the Study of War |

 

With the help of thousands of fighters from Hezbollah, Iran, and Iraq, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has achieved one of his most important military victories in the past two years by forcing the withdrawal of opposition forces from the town of al-Qusayr. The town is located in Homs province, an area central to the success of Assad’s overall military strategy. It is located along the southern route from Damascus through Homs province to the coast, at a juncture where regime forces have struggled to maintain their grasp. Rebel control of al-Qusayr had disrupted the regime’s critical ground line of supply from Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley and allowed for the cross-border movement of arms to rebels. Control of al-Qusayr now secures the regime’s line of communication from Damascus to the coast. Al-Qusayr now also cuts off access to cross-border weapons supplies to the rebels from Lebanon and provides an important staging ground for future efforts by the regime to retake the north and east. 

 

The regime launched a major offensive against al-Qusayr in May 2013, culminating in the regime’s successful routing of rebel troops from the town in early June. The fall of al-Qusayr has thus effectively altered the balance of power on the ground and serves as a critical turning point in the civil war.  With control of al-Qusayr, the regime can now strengthen its position in Homs province overall and better position itself to retake areas in the north and the east. Moreover, this regime success demonstrates the degree to which the conflict is no longer limited to Syria, but instead has engulfed the entire region, with troops from neighboring countries, including Lebanese Hezbollah in large numbers, reinforcing the regime's effort, and other regional and foreign fighters supporting the opposition.  To this end, the engagement in al-Qusayr has escalated cross-border operations by both sides.

 

The regime has been fighting for control of Homs province since its major offensive in the city in February 2012. By early May 2012, following a U.N. brokered cease-fire, only sporadic street fighting and shelling occurred in Homs city and the surrounding area. During this time, the government controlled the majority of the city, with the opposition holding less than a fifth of Homs while fighting for control of a similar-sized area was still ongoing. [1]  By mid-December 2012, the Syrian army had regained control of nearly all of the remaining portions of Homs city, except the Old City, Deir Baalba, and Khalidiya districts where rebels continued to hold out under the army’s siege. By the end of the month, government forces had recaptured Deir Baalba as well and were making significant inroads against the remaining rebel-held districts. [2]  In March 2013, the Syrian government hoped to conclusively consolidate its control of the city and launched a major offensive into rebel-held territory. [3] However, thanks to opposition reinforcements that arrived from al-Qusayr, the rebels were able to push back government forces. By mid-March, they launched their own offensive into Bab Amr, attacking numerous government positions within the key district. Heavy fighting ensued. [4] Although it is uncertain how much of Bab Amr the rebels were able to recapture or continue to hold while under intense shelling by the Syrian regime, is was clear that government  forces were struggling to maintain their positions and were at the risk of suffering major setbacks.

 

It was at this time in March 2013 that rebel commanders began reporting increasing numbers of Hezbollah troops in al-Qusayr. Although this was not a new phenomenon, the density of Hezbollah forces openly operating in conjunction with Syrian military forces was unprecedented. The border around al-Qusayr has never officially been settled, and many Shi‘a living in farming villages on the Syrian side of the border hold Lebanese passports. This had initially allowed Hezbollah to justify its activities in the area, and Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah early on claimed that those fighting near al-Qusayr were individual members of Hezbollah, acting of their own volition and not under party orders. But by October 2012, with the death of a senior commander near al-Qusayr it had become clear that Hezbollah was openly operating in the area under command and control of its leadership.

 

 

Since this time, Hezbollah’s involvement has shifted dramatically. By the end of March and early April 2013, Government forces were in danger of losing critical territory in Homs city. They were only able to hold on and push back against rebel forces due to the support of Hezbollah moving fully into the territory to fight on behalf of the Syrian government with entire units from the Bekaa Valley and Hermel mobilized. Hezbollah forces attacked rebel positions in and around al-Qusayr and reportedly committed a number of massacres in surrounding villages, forcing rebels to send reinforcements to al-Qusayr and stalling their offensive in Homs city.  Hezbollah troops then squeezed rebel positions from the southwest, while the government regained territory in Homs city and pushed in on rebels from the northeast. Effectively, government forces and Hezbollah coordinated to place al-Qusayr under siege and isolate the rebels within the city. [5] Beginning in April, pro-regime forces managed to clear rebels from much of the countryside and isolate the town in order to prevent a rebel withdrawal. Once villages were secured, the surrounding area was subject to a build-up of government troops. Reinforcements for the fight were drawn from units in Daraa and Damascus.  This strategy prevented the arrival of rebel reinforcements, which failed to find a way into the besieged town.  The siege also barred the transfer of weapons to the area. 

 

From this enhanced position, the regime launched a major offensive against al-Qusayr in early May 2013. In this offensive, regime troops combined with guerrilla detachments of Hezbollah and the militia-like National Defense Force. Government forces deployed artillery and airpower against the town, enabling bombardments that weakened rebel positions. Many rebels feared that they would be quickly defeated in the wake of the government offensive. One commander from the opposition al-Haqq Brigade stated, “If we hold our positions through the week it will be a miracle.” [6] Nearly twenty different opposition brigades came together to organize operations and repel the offensive, including the Farouq Brigades, the al-Haqq Brigade, the Mughaweer Battalion, the Wadi Brigades, the Qassioun Battalion, and the Ayman Battalion.  Jabhat al-Nusra has also played a role, although their presence in al-Qusayr has largely been exaggerated in media reporting. In mid-May, it was reported that an important Jabhat al-Nusra commander, Abu Omar, had been killed along with a number of his subordinates. [7] It appears that other rebel groups benefited from the death of Abu Omar by asserting their own leadership, and Jabhat al-Nusra has since played a marginalized role in the fighting with other rebel groups taking the lead.

 

 

Initially, the rebels were able to hold their positions despite the relentless bombardment, and managed to push back Hezbollah troops who took heavy losses during the early stages of the offensive.  The rebel’s success was partly due to a surge in weapons and resources that were smuggled into the town from Lebanon. Commanders from a variety of units were reportedly sending men into Lebanon to stock up on weapons before sending them back through Homs and into the remaining rebel-held neighborhoods before reaching al-Qusayr. Throughout May, the opposition groups in al-Qusayr were aided by a surge in reinforcements, with rebel groups from as far away as Aleppo and al-Raqqa sending forces to aid in the battle.  These reinforcements amassed in areas around Rastan and Talbissa, two important rebel strongholds that have been used as launching points for attacks in Homs and al-Qusayr. Although these reinforcements were largely prevented from entering the town itself, they played a key role in targeting government convoys sending reinforcements and supplies to pro-regime forces. [8]

 

It was not until mid-May that their grasp began to slip on the city and, on May 19^th, Syrian forces stormed al-Qusayr. Although media reports stated that Syrian forces had gained control of al-Qusayr’s city center and managed to retake all but ten percent of the city, rebel commanders denied the reports.  Videos posted online confirmed that rebels continued to hold the city center and much of the northern areas of the city at that time. [9] Fighting continued unabated with both sides consolidating forces in and around the town through May. Rebel groups from across Syria sent units to bolster their defense of al-Qusayr, including the Tawhid Brigade from Aleppo, the Nasr Salahaddin Battalion from al-Raqqa, and the Usra Brigade from Deir al-Zour. In early June, video statements showed that at least some of these reinforcements had managed to enter the city and participate in clashes with regime troops. [10] On the government side, reinforcements from the 3^rd and 4^th Divisions and the Republican Guard were sent from Damascus to provide greater infantry support. Some Damascus activists described a lightened military presence in Damascus as regime troops were sent in greater numbers to al-Qusayr. [11]

 

With the help of Hezbollah troops moving into Hamidiyah, the regime was able to retake the Dabaa military base and gain considerable ground in the southern section of the city by the end of May. From that time, the regime slowly advanced on rebel positions in the city and managed to cut off the majority of rebel supply lines. While conditions were dire for the armed opposition besieged in al-Qusayr, the rebels managed to maintain their positions in the western and northern sections of the city, as well as in key areas of the city center. They also managed to open an important corridor into the city near Shamsin from which they were able to attack government positions.  The rebels proved to be well entrenched in al-Qusayr and aided through fortifications including tunnels.

 

On June 3, government forces heavily bombarded the rebel-controlled northern area of al-Qusayr, leveling row after row of buildings in order to deny rebels cover. Soon after, Hezbollah units carried out a ground assault against the remaining operational opposition forces. This combined attack proved to be the final assault necessary for the regime and Hezbollah forces to force a negotiated withdrawal of rebel fighters, who were running desperately low on weapons and ammunition. Opposition forces were allowed to withdraw from al-Qusayr along a narrow corridor of territory still under their control to reach the villages of Dabaa and Buwaydah al-Sharqiyah. While the Syrian government had formerly prevented the withdrawal of opposition fighters, a Lebanese-brokered agreement between opposition fighters and Hezbollah reportedly paved the way for a rebel withdrawal on the condition that opposition fighters be allowed to evacuate families and wounded people without being attacked. [12] However, fighting has again broken out in these areas along the northern edge of the town where opposition forces continue to retreat, and government forces have been conducting clearance operations to evict the remaining rebel forces. [13]

 

 

Although the regime success in al-Qusayr was quite slow, the well-coordinated offensive proved to be successful in defeating rebels in the town.  The regime demonstrated a remarkable ability to adapt its military tactics and strategically evolve in ways that made them much more effective against the insurgency. To add to this, Hezbollah’s efforts shifted the local balance of forces in the area. In combination with regular and irregular regime elements, Hezbollah's contribution remains a key contributor to the rebel defeat. Hezbollah has proven to be much more effective in confronting rebel forces as they have better experience in guerrilla tactics, unlike the ranks of Syria’s conventional army. To this end, Hezbollah has played a key role in the regime's development of effective irregular forces. It reportedly provides training and advice to local militia groups, Popular Committee elements, and the National Defense Army, all of which are playing a growing role in the regime's defense. Many rebel commanders reported that fighting Hezbollah troops was much more difficult than fighting against regime troops because “they are better fighters” and “more professional” than the Syrian army. [14] For his part, Assad acknowledged his debt to the movement, expressing “very high confidence, great satisfaction and appreciation toward Hezbollah” and promising to “give them everything.” [15]

 

Fighting in al-Qusayr revealed a new regime approach to fighting its insurgency.  The Syrian government showed that it can use Hezbollah fighters, and possibly Iraqi and Iranian fighters, as a reliable infantry force alongside its own heavy weapons and airpower. The regime displayed a sophisticated level of operations which included heavy preparatory bombardment followed by the infiltration of irregular allied units, and finally armor-supported infantry attacks. The three phases of this strategy were jointly achieved through the coordination of separate chains of command, a difficult task under the best of circumstances. That the regime was able to cooperate so closely with Hezbollah leadership in combining regular, irregular, and allied units with separate functions speaks to the close nature of the relationship between the Syrian government and Hezbollah. The battle in al-Qusayr is unique in its proximity to Lebanon and the presence of so many Shi‘a Lebanese villages in the area, giving Hezbollah an edge in the fighting. Nevertheless, their increased involvement in battlefronts across Syria will be a critical boost to the regime.  Over time, the replenishment of the regime's forces could allow Assad to rest and redeploy some of his forces for operations elsewhere in Syria, including efforts to retake certain rebel-held areas in the north and the east. This would give the regime renewed offensive and defensive capabilities and greater resources.

 

However, it should be noted that mobilizing militia units drawn primarily from Alawi and Shi‘a populations has its drawbacks. Command and control of these irregular forces will likely become increasingly difficult, and the Syrian government’s ability to control them may deteriorate over time. Already, the fact that Hezbollah helped negotiate a withdrawal despite the regime’s initial decision to prevent one suggests the likelihood of future disagreements over strategy and objective. Moreover, while there are clear short-term benefits, this mobilization also produces greater sectarian polarization and thus threatens the support Assad receives by critical portions of the Sunni community. This type of strategy was avoided by former president Hafez al-Assad who was clearly aware of the dangers of relying solely on minority groups. He was careful to downplay sectarian rhetoric and sought to build cross-sectarian patronage networks as part of the regime’s embedded authoritarianism, which ultimately contributed to the regime’s staying power.   Losing Sunni support and relying on minority-drawn militias could put the regime in a vulnerable position, and it is unclear whether the government could then muster the manpower and support needed to reclaim lost territory.

 

As the conflict in Syria has protracted, the Assad regime has had time to reconsolidate and renew its offensive capability through an increased reliance on irregular forces and allied resources and support. This support from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah has exceeded the amount of support going to the opposition, and has meant that the regime is far better resourced than its opponents.  As the regime has adapted its strategy to match changing conditions, rebel forces have been unable to effectively respond. This is partly due to command and organizational issues that make it difficult to concentrate and coordinate significant forces, but it is also due to the lack of supplies, including much-needed ammunition, as well as their inability to withstand airpower. Overall, the opposition simply lacks the means for more effective resistance in the face of heavy bombardment by regime air power and artillery. This vulnerability was evident in al-Qusayr, where air power impeded resupply efforts and inflicted losses on opposition forces.

 

Although al-Qusayr may not be the decisive battle for Syria, it should be seen as an important turning point. By reasserting its military superiority in al-Qusayr, the regime has gained momentum, and through the help of Hezbollah and Iranian forces, it will likely be able to consolidate its control over the areas it now holds. This includes Syria’s most populated and economically important districts. Control of these areas will facilitate their advance on areas north of Homs province and possibly allow them to reclaim important rebel-held areas in the north and the east. Moreover, the regime victory effectively cuts off an important supply route to the rebels which will leave the armed opposition in an ever more weakened position. As for now, the regime does not have the forces required to move on from al-Qusayr and advance on other areas in the north. This means that the rebels have a brief window while the regime resets its capabilities. This window may permit them to develop a counteroffensive in order to disrupt the regime’s opportunity to capitalize upon its victory at al-Qusayr. However, the past performance of the armed opposition creates doubt over its ability to so. In light of the regime’s regained strategic and operational initiative, it will be even more difficult for the opposition moving forward.

 

This victory has also put the Syrian government in a better position as it enters the upcoming summit in Geneva. It is now able to transform its military advances into a stronger negotiating position, and there is now little pressure for Assad to bargain in good faith. His gains could even embolden Assad to push for all-out military victory rather than participate in the peace talks being promoted by the United States and Russia. This portends the failure of the summit and an end to international efforts to resolve the conflict through negotiations. If the international community truly seeks to enforce a negotiated settlement, they will have to do something to decisively change the balance of power on the ground ahead of the negotiations.

 

The battle for al-Qusayr symbolizes the conflict’s transformation into a regional imbroglio that can no longer be isolated within the Syrian context. Since the fall of the town, rebel fighters have already promised to take the fight to Hezbollah in Lebanon, launching over 18 rockets into Baalbek in a single day. [16] This has had a major impact on furthering sectarian polarization spilling over into Lebanon and Iraq, and exacerbating the role of identity politics and sectarianism in the region as a whole. While the defeat in al-Qusayr should not be seen as the decisive battle for Syria or as a forecast of regime victory, it does represent a new stage in the conflict through the open involvement of Hezbollah and Iranian forces at the side of the regime. That the regime was able to execute such an operation at this stage of the war testifies to its resilience and adaptability, and, more importantly, to the unswerving support of its allies Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. The support of these countries will allow for Assad to continue his military onslaught, while the lack of a decision to reinforce the opposition with the necessary resources ensures the rebels’ inferiority on the battlefield and will ultimately result in the death of the Geneva negotiations.  

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[1] Lyse Doucet, “Homs: a scarred and divided city,” BBC, May 9, 2012.

[2] Alison Tahmizian Meuse, “Syrian troops hit Homs, kill 23 children,” The Australian, December 30, 2012.

[3] “Syria rebels capture northern Raqqa city,” Al-Jazeera, March 5, 2013.

[4] Syrian Observatory for Human Rights Facebook Page, March 10, 2013.

[5] Interviews with Syrian rebels conducted via Skype in March, April 2013 and in person in Istanbul in May 2013.

[6] Interview with commander of Liwa al-Haq in al-Qusayr, conducted via Skype on May 3, 2013.

[7] Jim Kouri, “Islamists suffer setback in Syria with killing of al-Qaeda linked leader,” The Examiner, May 22, 2013.

[8] Interviews with rebel commanders in May 2013.

[9] “Al-Qusayr, Homs, Colonel Abdel Jabaar al-Iqaydi,” YouTube, June 2, 2013, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2b6gRQ8_BI; interviews with commanders in May 2013.

[10] “Al-Qusayr, Homs, Colonel Abdel Jabaar al-Iqaydi;” interviews with commanders in May 2013.

[11] Interviews with Syrian commanders and activists in May 2013; Jeffrey White, “The Qusayr Rules: The Syrian Regime’s Changing Way of War,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, May 31, 2013. 

[12] Saleh Hodaife, “Rebel withdrawal from al-Qusayr result of deal with Hezbollah,” NOW Lebanon, June 5, 2013.

[13] “Syria army deals severe blow to rebels in key town,” AP, June 5, 2013.

[14] Interviews with Syrian rebels conducted via Skype in March 2013.

[15] Liz Sly, “Assad forces gaining ground in Syria,” The Washington Post, May 11, 2013.

[16] “Syrian rockets hit Hezbollah stronghold in Lebanon, influential cleric fans sectarian flames,” AP, June 1, 2013. 

 

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