Where Are We Going?

Grim writing at Blackfive posts an interesting analysis concering his thoughts on the future of Iraq.

He writes in part:

We will participate in subduing Baghdad, and destroying al-Sadr. We fought the same fight in the holy city of Najaf, and across eastern Iraq, and won it. We can do it again in his strongholds of Baghdad. We will pass a secure capital to Iraq as our parting gift.

But we won't do another Fallujah-style campaign in al Anbar. When it is time to move again against al Anbar province, Iraq's central government will do it themselves. They now have the capability to close the western frontier with the forts, and hold those forts against even serious infantry attacks. This will be a
hammer-and-anvil movement, of the sort we regularly employed in Vietnam, but for keeps. Sunni tribes will be evicted and allowed to withdraw -- forever -- to Jordan or Syria, or destroyed, as the Central government prefers.

There will be no partition of Iraq. The Sunnis will comply, or leave, or be destroyed.

I couldn't agree more with him. While it does seem hopeful, it is obvious that the Shia population in Iraq is getting fed up with the Sunni Death Cult leaders such as Al Sadr. They are becoming increasingly more powerful as each day goes on and soon they are give the Shia an ultimatum.